• Stock Market

    Industry Group Dreams And Nightmares

    January 06, 2018 BY Kristen Perleberg

    For nearly three decades The Leuthold Group has tracked hypothetical portfolios composed of the previous year’s industry group “Dreams” and “Nightmares.”

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  • Major Trend

    MTI: Stock Market In Melt-Up Mode

    January 17, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Read this week's Major Trend Index

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  • What 10-Year Bond Yield Will Bite Stocks?

    January 16, 2018 BY James Paulsen

    As the stock market rally continues higher and the 10-year Treasury yield nears a three-year high, investors ponder what yield level will bite stocks. Historically, the stock market has withstood much higher yields. Is a 3% bond yield a stop sign for equity investors? Or, with synchronized global growth and earnings results juiced by tax cuts, will it take a 4% or 5% 10-year bond yield before the stock market succumbs?
     
     

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  • Inflation Watch

    Inflation—A Small Upside Surprise

    January 16, 2018 BY Chun Wang

    The latest Core CPI number beat expectations but the yield curve flattened. The market shows more conviction about the Fed’s rate hikes than longer term inflation. We recommend patience and we don’t believe missing out on the first few months of higher inflation will cost us dearly.

     

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  • Stock Market

    Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?

    January 06, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    We are contrarians at heart, but learned quickly that successful contrarian investing is far more complicated than simply buying assets that are down the most in price.

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  • Stock Market

    Economic Performance: Powerful Factor For Country Rotation

    January 06, 2018 BY Jun Zhu

    In previous studies, we looked at two classic factors for employing a country rotation strategy: valuation and momentum.

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  • Bonds

    Four Divergences—A Steepening Correction

    January 06, 2018 BY Chun Wang

    While we still believe flattening is the more likely scenario over the medium term, we do feel the recent flattening move is a bit overdone and there are several divergences that suggest a short-term steepening correction is in store.

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  • Equity Strategies

    Consumer Discretionary Back On Top

    January 06, 2018 BY Kristen Perleberg

    Of the 110 industries in our framework, the top seven are all Consumer Discretionary.

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  • Market Internals

    S&P 500: Can You Hear The Steel Drums?

    January 06, 2018 BY Phil Segner

    No volatility and only one (barely) down month—it was easy living for the S&P 500 in 2017. It was also a top-heavy year for the index. The largest five firms: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, and GOOG accounted for nearly a quarter of the index’s gain.

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  • COTW

    A Long-Term Take On Sentiment

    January 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Tax cuts, a strong economy, and daily stock market records have lifted measures of investor sentiment to levels not seen in two decades. But sentiment is only a slightly better timing tool than valuations (which is not saying much), and there’s plenty of room for excitement to build before a final top is at hand.

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  • Major Trend

    MTI: Major Breadth Measures At New Highs

    January 03, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Read this week's Major Trend Index...

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  • Some Guesses About 2018?

    January 02, 2018 BY James Paulsen

    Welcome to 2018!

    Compared to the start of any other year during this recovery, things feel pretty good. The U.S. just finished what is likely the only back-to-back-to-back quarterly 3%+ real GDP growth rates of the recovery, the unemployment rate is within an eyelash of a 50-year low, U.S. real median income finally reached a new record high (i.e., the recovery has reached Main Street), holiday sales reportedly jumped by 4.9%—the biggest increase since 2011, and consumer confidence recently rose to its highest level since 2000.

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  • COTW

    Temporary Power Outage?

    December 29, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    With the northern U.S. stuck in a deep-freeze, there could hardly be a worse time for the nation’s utilities to fail. But conventional chart work suggests that is exactly what’s happened. The Dow Jones Utility Average fell below its 40-week moving average last Friday, dropping the simple four-indicator model, shown in the chart, into third gear after it had spent most of the year with “four on the floor.”

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  • News This Good

    December 27, 2017 BY James Paulsen

    As shown by the chart, the U.S. Economic Surprise Index (ESI) rose to a six-year high last week. This is only the second time in the recovery (briefly in 2011 and again briefly in 2012) that economic surprises have been this consistently positive, and it’s only the third time since the inception of the surprise index in January 2003. If it feels good lately, it’s because it has been!

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  • COTW

    Market Thoughts In The "Season Of Excess"

    December 22, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While investors look high and low for signs of excess that might portend the next bear market, they should pause and consider the excesses that have recently gone away.

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  • Complacency in Pictures

    December 20, 2017 BY James Paulsen

    - noun  com•pla•cen•cy  \ kəm-ˈplā-sᵊn(t)-sē \

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  • Are You Rate Ready?

    December 18, 2017 BY James Paulsen

    Wall Street is entirely focused on the pending tax cut. However, where will mindsets turn in the New Year?

     

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  • COTW

    Is The Market Too Strong To Top Out?

    December 14, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    We observed in July that at an age when most bull markets are prepared to see the mortician, this one still seems to need a pediatrician. And five months later, the bull is acting as immature as ever!

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  • Oil Says It's Finally Time To BUY Energy!

    December 11, 2017 BY James Paulsen

    Energy stocks have persistently underperformed throughout this bull market. The relative total return performance of the S&P 500 Energy sector since the start of this bull market is the worst of all 11 sectors, trailing the overall S&P 500 index by almost 270%! Understandably, this chronic underperformer offering little positive price momentum is significantly underweighted in most portfolios. However, a simple valuation technique based on the relative price of crude oil suggests energy stocks may soon start outpacing the overall market. That is, Oil says it may finally be time to BUY Energy stocks!

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  • COTW

    Yawn? Another Sentiment Warning

    December 08, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The stock market has disregarded any and all caution flags throughout 2017, and the consensus is that it will continue do so through year-end.

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