• Grappling With A Strong U.S. Dollar Outlook

    March 06, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Profitable investing overseas requires not one, but two, successful decisions: 1) select an outperforming asset class; and, 2) be in a currency that provides a favorable foreign exchange impact.

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  • Major Trend

    MTI: Little Change Week Over Week

    March 21, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Read this week's Major Trend Index.

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  • Inflation Watch

    A Dovish Hike--Positive For Inflation

    March 16, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The dovish rate hike is a positive for inflation and credit. A hawkish message right now would have been quite detrimental and self-defeating in terms of realizing two more hikes later this year. We believe achieving sustained 2-3% inflation could be harder than most people expect going forward. Overall, we are encouraged by the dovish hike but we think the real test for inflation is when the base effect starts to wane.

     

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  • Stock Market

    What A Strong “Tape” Does (And Doesn’t) Mean

    March 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Our disciplines remain bullish, but we periodically wonder whether we’re being too cavalier in keeping our tactical portfolios “almost” fully-invested (at 65% equities) in the face of valuations that are higher than those seen in all but perhaps 24 months of stock market history.

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  • Stock Market

    What’s Wrong With Energy Stocks?

    March 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    One of our disappointments with the Group Selection (GS) Scores in 2016 was their failure to latch on to the rebound in Energy groups.

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  • Bonds

    Three Steps And No Stumble

    March 07, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    Given the high likelihood of a March rate hike, we can’t help but wonder if the old adage of “three steps and a stumble” really holds.

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  • Equity Strategies

    Financials Remain Atop Sector Rankings

    March 07, 2017 BY Kristen Perleberg

    Our Financials Sector Ranking has been strengthening since August—well before the Trump Bump. The addition of Regional Banks to our SI Portfolio boosts our Financials exposure to an overweight 26% versus the S&P 500’s 15% weight. Reinsurance and Developed Diversified Banks are also among the Attractively-rated options for diversification within the sector.

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  • Quant

    February Factor Performance

    March 07, 2017 BY Greg Swenson

    Low Volatility was in favor once again during February after struggling the previous month. Starting in September, the factor has continuously reversed the previous month’s performance.

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  • Inflation Watch

    Inflation-All About That Base

    February 15, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    CPI numbers were strong and better than expected. A big part of the recent upturn in inflation has to do with the much lower base from a year ago. We are seeing upside inflation surprises on a global basis but wage inflation is still disappointing. We are encouraged by the general uptrend in inflation data but we think the real test comes after the positive base effect subsides.

     

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  • Stock Market

    Stock Market Observations

    February 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks, yet the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category is almost the sole carrier of the bullish torch.

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  • Stock Market

    Decline Of The Aristocracy

    February 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Veteran market analyst Bob Farrell reminds investors that when parabolic uptrends eventually stop, the next move is never sideways. We don’t know that the Dividend Aristocrats and other bond-like stocks traced out a true parabola into last summer’s peaks, but the ugly aftermath suggests they probably did.

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  • Stock Market

    Active Versus Passive Return Drivers: A Year-End Update

    February 07, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Herein we provide a year-end update on the factors we determined were important to the active/passive relationship. We found that the market environment and the success of active managers changed significantly in late 2016.

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  • Stock Market

    How Much Cash Is Stashed Overseas?

    February 07, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    Tallying the overseas cash pile, predicting how much may be repatriated, and the potential impact on stock performance are challenging undertakings, which require more art than science.

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  • Of Special Interest

    Factor Investing And The Importance Of Market Cycles

    February 07, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    While factors do offer excess return they are by no means winners in all seasons. Our findings show that factor returns are cyclical, volatile, and unstable over time.

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  • Bonds

    Trump Trade—Pause Before More Gain

    February 07, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The market seemed hesitant to push the Trump trade any farther as new policies have focused on trade renegotiation and immigration, the less positive part of the policy package.

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  • Market Internals

    Up/Down Earnings: Ratio Springs Above Average

    February 07, 2017 BY Phil Segner

    Building on the momentum of the past few quarters, our “one-month” Q4 ratio sits comfortably above its historical mean for the first time in seven quarters.

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  • Equity Strategies

    Hotels & Leisure Travels To Near Top Of Scores

    February 07, 2017 BY Kristen Perleberg

    We take a deeper dive into Hotels & Leisure’s GS Score and fundamental industry drivers to explore what the group has to offer above and beyond its membership in the “Trump Trade” trend.

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  • Market Internals

    S&P 500: Another Month, Another Record High

    February 07, 2017 BY Phil Segner

    As we get further into the era of Trump, it will be interesting to see how the market balances anti-immigration and anti-free trade policies with deregulation and tax reform.

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  • Inflation Watch

    Deflationary Fears Decrease

    January 19, 2017 BY Phil Segner

    CPI figures for December matched consensus estimates.  The Federal Reserve should be pleased to see the modest uptrend in prices.  Sustained price inflation still faces a number headwinds including: resource slack, a strong Dollar and a weakening Yuan. Energy prices saw the largest gains in 2016 after a brutal 2015. Within the Core CPI, medical care experienced notable gains.

     

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  • Of Special Interest

    An Earnings Bottom...What's Next?

    January 18, 2017 BY Scott Opsal and Phil Segner

    It seems like it’s been ages since investors have been able to get excited about earnings growth, although our October 21st “Chart of the Week” showed that the S&P 500’s current earnings slump has been unremarkable in both depth and duration.

     

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  • Stock Market

    “Changes In Attitudes, Changes In Latitudes”

    January 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The above caption—and Jimmy Buffett song title—comes from the “View From The North Country” section in the first-ever Green Book published in November 1981. Not much has changed in 35 years.

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