• The Yin And Yang Of Utilities

    May 04, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Are Utilities defensives, or are they interest rate plays, or both? We believe the driving influence fluctuates based on market conditions, specifically fear, and the desire for protection in down markets.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Special Reports

    Value Style’s 100-Year Flood

    May 23, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Value is the philosophical cornerstone of many legendary portfolio managers and is widely recognized as one of the most robust quantitative investment factors. Yet, despite its compelling conceptual merits and long-term record of superior returns, recent years’ underperformance of Value has lasted long enough to weigh on even 10-year performance records. 

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Major Trend

    MTI: Daily A/D Numbers Suggest Strength

    May 22, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The daily advance/decline numbers suggest the recent bounce has been broad, but analyses based on the 52-week highs and lows (including various versions of the “High/Low Logic Index”) are flashing warning signals similar to the ones seen in the fall of 2007 and summer of 2015.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • One-Offs

    May 21, 2018 BY James Paulsen

    Here are a few unrelated concepts to chew on this week. No major overriding theme. Just a bunch of interesting “one-offs!”

    ...

    continue reading

  • COTW

    Is Small Cap Leadership Bullish?

    May 18, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Russell 2000 closed above its January 26th high on Wednesday, and well beforehand bulls had seized upon the secondary stocks’ leadership as evidence that all is right again with both the U.S. economy and stock market...

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Inflation Watch

    Inflation—A Small Miss

    May 10, 2018 BY Chun Wang

    We have seen a string of in-line/slightly subpar inflation numbers (including wages) both here in the US and overseas. Two countervailing market forces are at work too: a resurgent dollar and higher oil/commodities prices. Financial conditions would tighten quite a bit if both the dollar and the real yields are up significantly.

     

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    The Market Told You So

    May 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    First quarter profits have been terrific, and this quarter’s will be too. Enjoy them, but remember that the market “paid” you for them many months ago. Don’t submit another invoice…

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    The “Correction” Clock Is Ticking

    May 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    2018’s S&P 500 setback qualifies as an “intermediate” correction. Historically, the duration of intermediate corrections is brief, and recovery time to move back above prior highs has also been brief. This year’s retracement route is already among the most meandering of all recovery paths since 1950.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Bonds

    Rates & Credit At A Major Crossroads—A Few Things To Watch

    May 05, 2018 BY Chun Wang

     April saw a valiant attempt by the U.S. 10-year yield to crack the upper band of the multi-decade downtrend channel (around 3.0%-3.05%).

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    EM Country Rotation Based On A Stock Factor Model

    May 05, 2018 BY Jun Zhu

    Back testing shows stock-level factor alpha can be captured at the country level. With the rapid growth of single-country ETFs, this may prove an efficient, practical alternative to individual stock selection.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Quant

    Has The Makeup Of Momentum Changed?

    May 05, 2018 BY Greg Swenson

    The makeup of Momentum has stayed surprisingly steady through the volatility in 2018, with Info Tech and Health Care maintaining overexposure. Energy is sneaking in, though, and could be poised to take a much larger share.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Major Trend

    MTI: Economic Measures Improve Slightly

    May 01, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    While we’ve emphasized several negative developments within the MTI’s Economic composite in recent months, not all of the evidence leans bearish. Outside of the oil patch, commodities have struggled to make a clear breakout, possibly reflecting the short-term bounce in the dollar.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Major Trend

    MTI: Monetary And Liquidity Work Deteriorates

    April 17, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    While we’ve always emphasized the importance of the “weight of the evidence” over the individual MTI factor categories, it’s worth highlighting some key differences between the 2018 correction (which saw a loss in the S&P 500 of 10.2% at the February 8th closing low) and the 2015-2016 S&P 500 correction of 14.2%.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    A “Drug-Free” Market Decline?

    April 06, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Yields on 10-year Treasuries are up 10 bps since stocks peaked in January, a clear break from the behavior of prior corrections. The last four stock declines of 10%+ were self-medicating—having been accompanied by bond yield declines of 50 to 150 basis points.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    The Commodity Stock Disconnect

    April 06, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    We’ve chronicled the ever-expanding gap between commodity prices and commodity-oriented equities.  Don’t expect a rebound in one based on the strength of the other. There’s no clear historical tendency for the weaker asset to catch up.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Bonds

    Trade War & Libor—More Bark Than Bite?

    April 06, 2018 BY Chun Wang

    Isn’t a trade war more bark than bite? We think a full-blown trade war may be eventually negotiated away but the process is not necessarily painless to investors.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Of Special Interest

    Defensive Equity Styles: The Sultan Of Swat And The Splendid Splinter

    April 05, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    After performing amazingly well in the record-setting bull market run since 2009, defensive equities are once again drawing attention for their traditional role as hedges against a continuation of recent market declines.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Equity Strategies

    Discretionary Reigns: Hotels & Leisure Revisited

    April 05, 2018 BY Kristen Perleberg

    The Consumer Discretionary index has also managed to outperform the S&P 500 by about 100 bps since the market’s January 26th peak, and in late March it was just a hair away from surpassing its previous relative strength performance high recorded in late 2015.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Fund Flow Trends

    2018 Fund Flows Off To A Slow Start

    April 05, 2018 BY Kristen Perleberg

    Volatile markets in 2018 have lent to relatively subdued mutual fund (MF) and ETF inflows.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Markets’ Whispers

    April 02, 2018 BY James Paulsen

    Although struggles within the stock market are capturing most of the attention, stress signals are being whispered across the financial markets.

    ...

    continue reading

  • Major Trend

    MTI: Major Declines In Supply/Demand & Momentum

    March 27, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Supply/Demand work plummeted last week with three unrelated “smart money” measures all showing an institutional urgency to sell into the market weakness. Such behavior is atypical of this generally “countertrend” crowd, and a decisively bearish sign.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

Sign-in to your Account