• Beatlemania And Narrow Markets

    July 08, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    In April 1964, the Beatles simultaneously held the top-five spots on the Billboard Hot 100, a unique feat in the history of modern music.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Major Trend

    MTI: Economic Factors Strengthen

    July 18, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Read this week's Major Trend Index.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • COTW

    Boom/Bust Doesn't Point to Recession

    July 14, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Boom/Bust Indicator, combines a market-based measure (commodity prices) with a weekly government report on the employment situation

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Stock Market Observations

    July 08, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While the S&P 500 remains below our 2,550-2,600 summer target zone, we can’t help but be impressed by the quality of its recent highs—including confirmations by all of the “Red Flag” bellwethers except the S&P 500 Financials (which barely missed a new high on July 7th).

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    What Does The Low Vol Divergence Mean?

    July 08, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Low Volatility stocks have been the darlings of this bull market, and Low Vol is now considered a long-term “alpha generator” alongside such Hall of Fame quant factors as Low P/E and Price Momentum.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Recent Years’ Oil Price Experience Akin To 1980s’

    July 08, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    We revisit commentary we published in 2015 regarding the late-2014 oil price crash and review why, at that time, we believed oil prices could stay at depressed levels for a longer period than most expected. Additionally, we advise avoiding two Energy sector segments: companies with high balance-sheet risk, and Energy Royalty Trusts.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Bonds

    Bond Conundrum—This Time Is Not That Different

    July 07, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    Despite the late reversal in rates and the yield curve, the flattening trend of the yield curve remains intact. The fact that longer-term bond yields have fallen while the Fed is raising rates brings back memories of the “bond conundrum” episode during 2004-2006.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Equity Strategies

    Humble Oil

    July 07, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    With Energy stocks underperforming the S&P 500 by 20% YTD, contrarian clients are wondering if the sector holds any promise. Here we look for valuation signals that offer encouragement for bargain-hunting investors willing to buy on weakness.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Inflation Watch

    Inflation Disappoints Again

    June 15, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The CPI numbers have disappointed three months in a row. Weak commodity prices do not inspire higher inflation expectations. The global scope of inflation deceleration adds more weight to the recent soft readings. However, lower bond yields relative to nominal growth rate is inflationary and buffers the impact of weak inflation and rate hikes.

     

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Stock Market Observations

    June 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    After a two-month lull, stock market momentum reasserted itself in May bringing our summer S&P 500 target of 2,600 back into focus… Meanwhile, we’ve fielded several media calls about the “FANG” stocks’ large contribution to some YTD returns—but that doesn’t diminish the new highs being made elsewhere by disparate groups… NYSE Weekly A/D Line and New Highs/Lows figures also suggest the stock market isn’t yet top-heavy enough to tip over.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Of Special Interest

    Dynamic Factor Investing: A Study In Value

    June 07, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Investment factors experience performance cycles just like every other asset and index. The Value factor is robust across definitions, as all eight versions produced positive excess returns under long/short and long-only methodologies.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    A Contrarian “Late-Cycle” Play?

    June 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Amazon Effect masks both the underperformance of the average Discretionary stock and the relative value that’s been reestablished across the sector. “Discretionary ex-Amazon” is a better contrarian pick than Energy.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Bonds

    Goldilocks—Enjoy It While It Lasts

    June 07, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The best interpretation of the current cross-asset message is the scenario of goldilocks, and there are reasons to believe this is a possible scenario for the near term.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Emerging Markets: Fundamental Diffusion Indicators

    June 07, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    Within EM, more robust growth is being exhibited by: 1) firms in Emerging Europe; 2) companies in Energy, Materials, and Financials; and, 3) larger cap companies.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Fund Flow Trends

    YTD Fund Inflow Remains Highest Since 2013

    June 06, 2017 BY Kristen Perleberg

    Excluding money market, all equity and bond fund categories have captured cumulative net cash inflow that is more than five times the level seen at this time last year. ETF inflow this year has accounted for nearly 80% of all flows.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Inflation Watch

    Inflation Subpar Again

    May 12, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The latest CPI numbers are slightly weaker than expected. We think expectations for higher inflation are still on the high side. The global scope of inflation deceleration adds more weight to the recent soft readings. Patience is the right approach for the reflation trade at this point.

     

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Spring Doldrums?

    May 05, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Bull markets bail out bad decisions—like buying the market high ahead of the Great Recession.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Stock Market Observations

    May 05, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The S&P 500 has labored beneath its March 1st bull market high for the last two months while underlying breadth and leadership trends have remained mostly favorable.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Bonds

    Reflation Trade Complicated By Data Challenges

    May 05, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The dominant theme in the last few weeks has been the notable weakness in macro-economic data.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Leverage Factor: A Tailwind For High Quality Stocks?

    May 05, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    Following 2016 underperformance, High Quality stocks eked out an advantage over Low Quality stocks to begin 2017 (+5.3% versus +2.1%, respectively). Yet, the “Junk Rally” trend seems difficult to reverse.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    The Intelligent Use Of Smart Beta

    May 05, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Quantitative investing has become an integral component of professional investment management, and smart beta funds have become popular vehicles for advisors as they assemble actively-managed client portfolios.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

Sign-in to your Account