COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    Why Is Discretionary Leading?

    February 16, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    For at least the last year we have argued that late bull market conditions would tend to reward momentum strategies over mean-reverting ones. That’s played out not only during the market’s melt-up phase, but also (to our surprise) during the recent two-week air-pocket, at a time when we would have expected to see at least a temporary setback in the ratio above.

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    Active vs. Passive Return Drivers: Updated Through Year-End 2017

    February 09, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Our ongoing research into the relative performance of Active vs. Passive fund styles is based on the belief that just as market conditions cycle, so does the active-passive return spread..

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    Are Higher Rates Set To Hit The Low Vol Stocks?

    February 02, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Low Volatility theme has been the darling of this bull market, benefiting from years of skepticism surrounding the economic expansion and the related lack of competition from fixed income instruments...

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    A Fond Remembrance Of Y2K… And Great Values

    January 26, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    We’ve participated in this year’s upside market surge, while at the same turning a bit wistful in remembrance of a simpler and saner stock market era—an era when one could buy more than a third of the Leuthold 3000 stock universe for less than 14x earnings. Yes, that’s the comparative period of stock market sanity that existed in late February 2000, just days before the NASDAQ Composite made its historic bubble-era peak.

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    Late In Bull Market, But Not Terminal

    January 19, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The bull market continues to behave like one that’s in a late—but not terminal—phase. After a stumble late last year, the Momentum leaders have already reasserted their dominance, opening up a four percent lead on the Value stocks YTD after crushing them in 2017.

     

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    Growth: Too Much of a Good Thing?

    January 11, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Growth has trounced Value over the past year, continuing a decade-long trend of outperformance...

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    A Long-Term Take On Sentiment

    January 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Tax cuts, a strong economy, and daily stock market records have lifted measures of investor sentiment to levels not seen in two decades. But sentiment is only a slightly better timing tool than valuations (which is not saying much), and there’s plenty of room for excitement to build before a final top is at hand.

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    Temporary Power Outage?

    December 29, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    With the northern U.S. stuck in a deep-freeze, there could hardly be a worse time for the nation’s utilities to fail. But conventional chart work suggests that is exactly what’s happened. The Dow Jones Utility Average fell below its 40-week moving average last Friday, dropping the simple four-indicator model, shown in the chart, into third gear after it had spent most of the year with “four on the floor.”

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    Market Thoughts In The "Season Of Excess"

    December 22, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While investors look high and low for signs of excess that might portend the next bear market, they should pause and consider the excesses that have recently gone away.

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    Is The Market Too Strong To Top Out?

    December 14, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    We observed in July that at an age when most bull markets are prepared to see the mortician, this one still seems to need a pediatrician. And five months later, the bull is acting as immature as ever!

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